Earlier this week, we discussed how most projections from financial institutions are calling for a quick V-shaped recovery from this economic downturn, and there’s research on previous post-pandemic recoveries to support that expectation.

In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.

Here are the results of that poll:

Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts? 

The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.

Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:

1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?

2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?

3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.

Bottom Line

Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.

If you have any questions about the real estate market in your area, just email me at michaelj@myreateam.com. Every neighborhood is unique and trying to see what’s happening with your specific property in your neighborhood, in your city, inside your state can get complicated. Using a real estate professional to get a better picture of your home’s value, or even trying to answer the question when may be the right time to sell, takes knowledge that reporters and news outlets are not really equipped to advise you on.

I want to help you in any way I can. If you want to quickly check out with your home is worth using our Instant Market Report to see the quick snapshot. If you are wanting a detailed analysis of the true value range in today’s market, get a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) by giving us your home’s specifics here. You will receive a report with the value possibilities of your home in today’s market. And while you are at it check out our recent Market Update for your area to give you a general look at what’s happening in your city.

I appreciate you looking us up, and letting us be your information source for anything you may have a question on or need help with. We love people, and we love properties. Just reach out and call us at (503) 799-8354 to get answers to your questions.

Cheers,

Michael Jester
Oregon Licensed Real Estate Broker
My Real Estate Advisor Team
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(503) 799-8354 Direct
michaelj@myreateam.com
2210 Mission St SE, Suite 250
Salem, OR 97302
www.myreateam.com